SafariSpinSafari|巴西南方大豆主产州爆发洪水，产量可能损失100到200万吨

Source: China Grain Network

Soybean harvest prospects in Rio Grande do Sul are deteriorating rapidly.SafariSpinSafariThe state was expected to become Brazil's second largest producer after Mato GrossoSafariSpinSafariHowever, after torrential rains flooded farmland, the state's soybean harvest prospects deteriorated rapidly, and 1/4 of the soybeans have not yet been harvested.

Analysts estimate that 40 per cent of soyabean crops remain unharvested in central and southern Rio Grande do Sul and about 10 per cent in the north, making it difficult to estimate specific yield losses. About 5 million tons of soybeans may be "at risk" due to rainfall and floods, but the final loss may be lower, about 1 million to 2 million tons.

Broker Adelson Gasparin initially estimated that soybean production could lose as much as 2.8 million tons, but that could change because different regions are affected by floods and production losses vary.

Leandro da Silva, manager of Cotrisal, a farm co-operative in Rio Grande do Sul, said on Friday that torrential rains had flooded entire cities and farms and could lead to a loss of up to 15 per cent of soybean production. He expects production to be between 19 million and 20 million tons. The quality of the crops will also be damaged. In the worst affected areas, soyabean production will be lost by 70% to 80%.

Alf Diaz, an analyst at hedge points Global Markets, a consultancy, said the company estimated that there were still 5 million tons of soybeans waiting to be harvested in risk areas in the state, but that potential production losses would be as high as 2 million tons.

Before the torrential rain, Brazilian state company CONAB estimated soybean production in the state of Rio Grande do Sul at 21.89 million tons and Emater, the agricultural agency in the week of Rio Grande do Sul, at 22.25 million tons.

On Thursday, Emater did not revise its yield forecast in its weekly report, but noted that rainfall had disrupted the soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, where 24% of the state's soybeans were still to be harvested.

CONAB will release updated production forecasts on May 14, and last month it forecast Brazilian soybean production of 1 in 2023 Universe 24.SafariSpinSafari.46.5 billion tons, a decrease of 5% over the previous yearSafariSpinSafari.2%, because the drought in Mato Grosso has led to a sharp reduction in production.

Fernando Muraro, an analyst at AgRural, said the market would soon find that Brazil's soybean harvest was well below the USDA's estimate of 155 million tons. He added that everyone had been optimistic about Brazil's soybean production prospects because of the high production in Rio Grande do Sul, but that national soybean production was likely to decline after recent climate events. Now, we will have to lower our production forecast again, but we don't know how low it will be.

Heavy rains over the weekend have killed 55 people, displaced nearly 70,000 and destroyed logistics and power infrastructure. Farmers say some farmland is completely submerged.

With potential damage to soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul, Chicago soybean futures soared above $12 per cattail, which could undermine Brazil's total production and export potential.

Louis Locke, an analyst at consulting firm Safras & Mercado, said it was too early to talk about the exact number of production losses, but the company did cut its production forecast for Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil's national harvest is expected to decline.

Karlo Cog, a partner at agribusiness Cog Intelligence, said the floods had had an impact on Chicago soybean futures, but it was necessary to monitor new developments. In addition to affecting production, flooding will also affect logistics in all these areas, another risk premium that needs to be weighed.